Idaho Climate-Economy Impacts Assessment

Agriculture is important for the livelihoods of many Idahoans and is the backbone industry for many small towns. Agriculture and food processing account for 13% of Idaho’s gross domestic product (GDP), or 18% percent of total economic sales. Changes in climate, such as temperature and precipitation, are linked with agricultural production (e.g., yields). Idaho’s climate likely will change substantially, with higher daily maximum and minimum temperatures, more frequent high precipitation events and a longer frost-free season. Regional variations in climate influence the scope of impacts to Idaho’s crops and livestock, leading to greater risks for some regions and agricultural industries compared to others.  

Learn more about climate impacts to Idaho’s agricultural economy through the links below.

• Agriculture Technical Report (PDF)  
• Agriculture Snapshot (PDF)  
• Agricultura Instantánea (PDF)

Key findings for agriculture

Key messages:

• Climate variables – temperature, precipitation and snowpack — are linked with agricultural production, including crop yields.
• Peer-reviewed literature shows that projected changes in climate variables will have different effects on different crops. Some crops, such as onions, are more sensitive to changes in temperature than are others, such as grains.
• Changes in surface water and groundwater availability (as influenced by snowpack levels, associated runoff flows and timing and water management decisions) and producer responses to shifting water availability likely will influence the performance of agriculture in Idaho over the coming decades.
• Idaho farmers and their partners already are demonstrating ingenuity and leadership, experimenting with and adopting new practices to help mitigate risks associated with the changing climate.

Opportunities:

• Additional water storage and water recharge may be needed to capture increased water runoff in the winter and early spring to prevent flooding and to augment irrigation storage. This can help meet water use demand and offset water shortages in the warmer months.
• Opportunities to reduce water use include:
  • Improving current irrigation system efficiency.
  • Managing irrigation timing to coincide with crop needs.
  • Adjusting crop rotations.
  • Planting new seed varieties that need less water.
  • Improving soil health to increase water retention.
  • Shifting to crops/species that are more tolerant of disease and increasing temperatures.
• Systems in locations with climates similar to those projected for Idaho may provide insight into adaptation strategies, such as potato storage systems in Germany. 

Energy fuels Idaho’s economy. Idaho’s energy supply comes from three primary sources: renewable, natural gas and petroleum. Electricity in Idaho is derived mostly from renewable resources, such as hydropower, wind and solar.

Concerns related to energy and climate include the availability of energy resources necessary for increasing demand in heating and cooling. As changes in climate increase, and Idaho transitions to more clean energy use, it is important to prepare for the likely impacts to energy sources.

Learn more about climate impacts to Idaho’s energy sector through the links below.

• Energy Technical Report (PDF)
• Energy Snapshot (PDF)
• Energía Instantánea (PDF)

Key findings for energy

Key messages:

• Changes in temperature, precipitation and snowpack impact Idaho’s energy resources.  
• Increasing temperature and a growing population will increase summer energy demand, the highest demand season in Idaho. Demand increases may vary in magnitude across the state.
• Decreasing summer streamflow will impact hydropower generation, the main source of Idaho’s electricity. Additional storage capacity may be needed to accommodate increased spring streamflow and decreased summer streamflow.
• As coal and petroleum are phased out to meet clean energy goals, additional transmission capacity and alternative firm energy sources, such as nuclear, likely will need to be expanded.
• The extension and modernization of electrification is one of the most anticipated, but also challenging, changes to the current energy system. Electrification can allow for cleaner (and even zero-carbon) transportation and heating; it has the potential to lower long-term costs compared to technologies using other types of fuels.

Opportunities:

• Increasing generation through renewable, intermittent resources like solar and wind would not only reduce carbon emissions and reduce the feedback from energy to the climate, but also can create jobs and economic growth.
• Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and other national laboratories are exploring the development of clean and economically competitive nuclear energy options. As well, INL and other national laboratories are researching enhanced energy storage capabilities, which would relieve some of the major challenges associated with increased electrification.
• Energy-related jobs likely will increase in number as the state’s energy sector evolves with the changing climate and economic needs.

Climate-related events — heat, wildfire smoke and poor air quality — are increasing, along with serious illness and death. Direct health costs of air pollution and climate change in the U.S. have been estimated to exceed $800 billion per year and are anticipated to increase as temperatures rise. This estimate does not include other health-related economic costs, such as food and water contamination, supply chain disruption, long-term health consequences, reduced quality of life and diminished mental health.  

Learn more about climate change impacts to Idahoans’ health through the links below.

• Human Health Technical Report (PDF)
• Human Health Snapshot (PDF)
• Salud Humana Instantánea (PDF)
• Human Health Supplemental Report (PDF)

Key findings for human health

Key messages:

• Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke and high temperatures are the most widespread direct and indirect impacts of climate change on Idahoans’ health. Many indirect impacts exist that affect wellbeing, productivity, life expectancy and economic health.
• Other climate-related health impacts include vector-borne disease, decreased water quality and quantity, harmful algal blooms, food safety and food insecurity, mental health and others.
• Idahoans will not experience health-related economic impacts of climate change uniformly. Idaho’s geographical diversity and differences in population density, infrastructure, income, access to health and human services, age, health status and more all will influence how human health will be affected.
• Climate change-related health impacts disproportionally affect the elderly, the young, pregnant women, individuals with chronic diseases and disabilities and people who lack health care access and economic resources. Outdoor workers, such as those employed in agriculture, construction and public safety, face greater vulnerability to smoke and temperature extremes.
• Tribal populations face particular climate-related health vulnerabilities due to loss of natural resources, physical displacement and First Food and economic losses, all of which impact essential spiritual and cultural practices. 

Opportunities:

• Health practitioner training that incorporates information on health risks connected to the changing climate can help reduce health care costs and support a strong economy.  
• Further study on health and economic data connected to hospital admissions, emergency room visits, emergency transport clinic visits and insurance can expand understanding of climate exposures on health and the economy at local and state levels.
• Emergency preparedness planning can incorporate climate change, helping healthcare systems prepare for likely events and health risk changes.

Infrastructure consists of basic facilities and networks needed for the operation of Idaho’s economy. Infrastructure includes road and rail systems, airports, water and wastewater facilities, energy networks and information and communication networks. Infrastructure systems are connected; disruptions in one system cascade into other systems. Infrastructure is not only essential for communities to function; the quality and reliability of infrastructure systems also play an important role in corporations’ location decisions.

With increasing extreme weather-related events, infrastructure disruptions will occur more often. Increasing winter and spring precipitation lead to greater risk for floods, landslides and deterioration of bridges and roadways. Rising temperature and decreasing summer precipitation create conditions ideal for drought and wildfires.

Learn more about the impacts of climate change on Idaho’s infrastructure through the links below.

• Infrastructure Technical Report (PDF)
• Infrastructure Snapshot (PDF)
• Infraestructura Instantánea (PDF)

Key findings for infrastructure

Key messages:

• Idaho’s infrastructure likely will be impacted by climate change and climate change-related weather events.
• Infrastructure systems — such as transportation, water and energy – are connected. Weather-related disruptions in one system often cascade into others, which can greatly increase the economic impact of a disruption. The integrity of the entire infrastructure system hinges on the strength of the most vulnerable link.
• In the short-term, climate change impacts on infrastructure in Idaho mostly will be caused by weather-related events, such as avalanches, land/mudslides and wildfires.
• In the long-term, climate change may require Idaho’s infrastructure providers to redesign facilities, operations and models based on a different climate regime.

Opportunities:

• Adapting to design standards, modifying operations and routine maintenance can prevent critical infrastructure disruptions.
• With models that consider future climate conditions, infrastructure providers can increase efficiency of facilities, operations and maintenance.
• Reliable access to communication, energy, transportation and water services for rural communities is important, particularly with increases in weather-related events. Microgrids are one option that enhance local resilience to increasing weather-related events and protect critical community electricity infrastructure.

Land-based economies are an essential part of Idaho’s economic landscape. Forests cover over 40% of Idaho’s land and rangelands 54%. Forests and rangelands provide multiple uses and benefits, including timber harvesting, livestock grazing, recreation opportunities, carbon capture and wildlife habitat.

The benefits Idaho’s forests and rangelands provide are impacted by Idaho’s climate. Higher summer temperatures and less precipitation in summer are leading to longer and more severe droughts. Fire seasons are lengthening across Idaho, resulting in more frequent and larger fires. In addition to fires, insect and pathogen outbreaks and invasive species are expected to increase across Idaho’s lands. In recent decades, wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks have killed millions of acres of trees across Idaho’s forests. The impacts associated with climate change present risks to Idaho’s land-based economies.

Learn more about climate impacts to Idaho’s lands through the links below.

• Forests Technical Report (PDF)
• Forests Snapshot (PDF)
• Bosques Instantánea (PDF)
• Rangelands Technical Report (PDF)
• Rangelands Snapshot (PDF)
• Pastizales Instantánea (PDF)

Additional information on ecosystems and other species important to Idaho:

• Ecosystems and Species (PDF)
• Climate and Fish (PDF)
• Ungulate Species (PDF)

Key findings for land

Key messages for forests:

• Climate affects Idaho’s forests through temperature and precipitation. Idaho’s forests have warmed in the last few decades and projected future climate change suggests continued warming, as well as greater annual precipitation and reduced summer precipitation.
• How Idaho’s trees respond to climate change will vary depending on species and location. For example, some lower elevation trees will respond less favorably to hotter, drier conditions while trees at higher elevations will experience more favorable conditions associated with warming and longer growing seasons. Because understanding of future precipitation and tree response is limited, the changes in Idaho’s trees are uncertain.
• Recent climate conditions have led to widespread and severe forest disturbances in Idaho. For example, wildfires and bark beetles benefit from warmer, drier conditions. Future climate change will lead to more frequent and severe disturbances, affecting tree growth and survival. Climate change and enhanced disturbances may lead to increased susceptibility of forests to disturbances and reduce their ability to recover.
• Climate change will impact ecosystem services provided by forests, including timber, recreational opportunities and habitat for other species.  

Opportunities for forests:

• Forests hold potential to provide “natural climate solutions,” solutions for reducing future climate change using natural ecosystems. Tree growth removes carbon from the atmosphere and sequesters a portion in stems, branches, leaves and roots.
• Opportunities exist for Idaho forests to help reduce (mitigate) future climate change. Idaho forests could be used in carbon offset projects in existing carbon markets while still allowing for traditional forest uses. Management actions can help humans and other species adapt to future climate change.
• Enhancing a forest’s ability to absorb climate change-related stress may be possible through minimizing other stressors, such as wildfires and insect and pathogen outbreaks. 

Key messages for rangelands:

• Wet winters and warmer, drier summers may decrease forage available during summer months, resulting in the need to adjust turnout dates. Feed crops harvested for later use, such as hay or alfalfa, also may decline due to hotter, drier growing conditions and reduced water availability.
• Warmer temperatures may cause animal heat stress and require additional resources, such as making additional water available for livestock and animal use. Both wildfire and (invasive) annual grasses can impact yearly livestock grazing rotations, stocking rates and rangeland management.
• Increasing precipitation and temperature variability can increase costs for livestock operations.
• Changes in temperature and precipitation may alter demand for recreational usage of rangelands. These changes will test the capacity of public lands and infrastructure to accommodate shifting recreational demands.
• Drought and wildfire may impact the availability of wildlife habitat, affecting bird and wildlife viewing and hunting. Wildfires, restoration efforts and loss of species habitat may mean area closures to recreational and grazing use.

Opportunities for rangelands:

• Managers can aim to keep rangelands productive and look for opportunities to restore degraded rangelands. Converting degraded rangelands and croplands back to productive native rangelands with healthy perennial grasses has the potential to sequester atmospheric carbon.
• Work with local weed management cooperatives or Rangeland Fire Protection Associations to address risks from weeds and wildfires.
• Decision-support tools, such as RangeSAT, which tailor information on weather and forage for rangeland users, have the potential to help ranchers and others adapt to climate change.
• Identify alternative forage sources in case of drought and consider altering class or breed of livestock to those better adapted to future climate conditions.
• Revise restoration and management plans to account for new climate conditions. Adaptive management strategies and proactive management decisions will be necessary to improve rangeland sustainability and resilience.

Over 100,000 Idahoans work in industries related to recreation and tourism. Tourism adds $3.7 billion annually to Idaho’s economy and provides roughly $475 million annually in tax revenues. While Idaho is home to abundant outdoor experiences, such as hunting, fishing, skiing, snowmobiling and more, changes in climate, including increasing temperature, decreasing snow and snowpack and increasing wildfire frequency and intensity put the outdoor recreational economy at risk for shorter seasons and closures.

Learn more about the impact of climate change on Idaho’s recreation and tourism economy through the links below to open the recreation and tourism technical report and snapshot.

• Recreation and Tourism Technical Report (PDF)
• Recreation and Tourism Snapshot (PDF)
• Recreación y Turismo Instantánea (PDF)

Key findings for recreation and tourism

Key messages:

• Idaho has a substantial and growing tourism industry, largely based on the outdoor recreation opportunities provided by land, lakes and rivers. Climate change is likely to influence the economic risks and opportunities this sector experiences and affect the overall wellbeing of Idahoans who engage in recreation and tourism.
• Smoke from wildfires and high temperatures impacts motorized and non-motorized visitation and use of public lands and poses health risks to humans and wildlife.
• Changes in precipitation and warmer air temperatures affect water temperature and streamflow. This puts fish species and fisheries at risk, impacting both revenue from recreational fishers and revenue for outfitters and guides.
• Across the state, the amount of time that snow covers the ground has decreased and, in many locations, ski and snowmobile seasons are projected to grow shorter with decreasing snow quality throughout the 21st century.

Opportunities:

• Closures and delays are likely to increase and be more pronounced at lower elevation winter resorts, with higher elevation winter resorts potentially experiencing an increase in visitation. While declines in snowpack generally have negative effects for Idaho’s ski resorts, some resorts already have taken steps to adapt to changing conditions. Resorts are making their own snow and diversifying their year-round revenue streams. Examples include offering expanded summer recreational activities, such as hiking and biking trails; providing conference space and holding concert series. With increasing demand for summer outdoor activities, Idaho resorts have the opportunity to offset potential declines in winter revenue.
• There may be opportunities to attract winter sport enthusiasts from areas of the country more severely affected by the changing climate. Idaho could attract tourists from states like Vermont, where snow-based activities are becoming less available.
• While extreme heat and smoke may reduce the number of recreators boating, camping, fishing, hiking, off-roading and more in the summer, these losses may be offset by increased participation in spring and fall months. Communities that develop tourism adaptation strategies and anticipate these changes may be able to capitalize on changing visitation patterns.

Idaho’s economy is linked to abundant natural resources. Idaho’s forests, deserts and mountains sustain agriculture, energy, forests, rangelands and recreational economies—all of which are dependent on three interrelated aspects of climate—temperature, precipitation and snowpack.

Climate projections show continued warming throughout the 21st century. The annual average temperature across Idaho is projected to warm 6-11˚F above 1950-1999 values by 2100, under two widely used future climate scenarios. Changes in temperatures, snowpack and precipitation will have direct impacts on Idaho’s economic sectors.

Learn more about Idaho’s changing climate through the links below.

• Climate Technical Report (PDF)
• Climate Snapshot (PDF)
• Clima Instantánea (PDF)

Air quality, a measure of how clean or polluted the air is, can range from good to hazardous. Wildfire smoke, which contributes to poor air quality across Idaho, has increased significantly across the state and the western U.S. over the past four decades. Forests in the Northwest and Rocky Mountains likely will experience a 2-3x increase in burned areas by 2050. By 2050, many regions in Idaho are projected to be among the highest risk areas for wildfire smoke in the nation.

Smoke-related economic damage to Idaho could reach millions of dollars per year. This includes crop damage, slower crop growth and impacts to livestock, such as reduced milk production and an increase in the number of smoke-related illnesses, with an estimated doubling of premature deaths due to smoke by 2100.

Learn more about increasing impacts of wildfire smoke in Idaho through the links below.

• Smoke Technical Report (PDF)
• Smoke Snapshot (PDF)
• Humo Instantánea (PDF)

Idaho’s mountains accumulate snowpack in the winter months, which feeds Idaho’s watersheds in the spring and summer months. The gradual melting and runoff during the spring and summer provides streamflows, fills reservoirs and replenishes groundwater for the warmer, drier months. Several major aquifers in Idaho provide significant storage of groundwater. These groundwater resources are vital to the water supply for food production and processing, as well as commercial, household, industrial and municipal needs.

The pattern of water availability for Idaho’s economy is changing. Decreasing snowpack, increasing rain-on-snow events, earlier peak streamflow and less summer precipitation will lead to increased flooding, drought, greater challenges for water storage and risks to habitat and health.

Learn more about the impacts of climate change on Idaho water resources through the links below.

• Water Technical Report (PDF)
• Water Snapshot (PDF)
• Agua Instantánea (PDF)

What is the Climate-Economy Impacts Assessment?  

The Idaho Climate-Economy Impacts Assessment is a nonpartisan, science based resource to help Idaho business leaders and policy makers plan for a productive, prosperous and resilient Idaho economy. This assessment connects the latest scientific research on Idaho’s changing climate with economic risks and opportunities that impact businesses, residents and local and state economies.

What does the assessment include?  

The assessment includes an economic analysis of the agriculture, energy, health, infrastructure, land (forest and range) and recreation and tourism sectors. Analyses connect the latest science about Idaho’s changing climate with economic risks and with opportunities for innovation and economic development. The assessment also features data on climate, water and wildfire smoke; a summary of economic opportunities; and resources and references.

What was the research process?  

Researchers representing Idaho universities and colleges, businesses, nonprofits, and tribal and other governments collaborated in the research effort, with subject matter experts providing technical feedback on all sections of the assessment, similar to an academic peer review process. Researchers also spoke with Idahoans to ensure the work was informed by diverse experiences. Each research team studied a single, technical area.

An advisory board of leaders from across business, industry and nonprofit organizations; representatives from Idaho communities; and leaders from local, state, federal and tribal governments ensured that this assessment benefits from diverse perspectives and is broadly relevant, engaging and actionable. Advisory board members provided technical input and feedback on the products developed by the research teams.  

Who led the assessment?

The McClure Center for Public Policy Research at the University of Idaho convened the assessment with support and involvement from many organizations, including representatives from Idaho’s higher education institutions and other experts. A postdoctoral fellow worked with the research teams to help ensure cohesion across the project. In addition, a small executive committee of environmental, health, nonprofit and corporate stakeholders supported the assessment.  

How is the assessment funded?  

A diverse group of collaborative stakeholders funded the assessment. These partners include businesses and nonprofit organizations, with further support from in-kind contributions made by University of Idaho, Boise State University, Idaho State University and other organizations. Sources of financial support are shown on the website.

How are you sharing results from the assessment?  

Assessment content is free, interactive and available to provide broad accessibility to business, nonprofit and public sector decision-makers, students, educators and residents. Assessment ambassadors are sharing the assessment with community, business and government leaders across the state. To learn more about scheduling a presentation, contact the McClure Center for Public Policy Research at mcclurecenter@uidaho.edu or 208-364-4549.

What is the scope of the assessment? How comprehensive is it?  

Research findings are grounded in existing scientific research, synthesized and made applicable to Idaho’s unique circumstances. Through both quantitative and qualitative outputs, the assessment provides a foundation for better understanding the economic impacts and opportunities of a changing climate in Idaho. Results also reveal areas that warrant further research. The assessment findings include maps, forecasting tools, air quality tools and highlights of economic opportunities.

What are the benefits of doing the Idaho Climate-Economy Impacts Assessment?  

Idaho’s changing climate is impacting our livelihoods and way of life. The Idaho Climate-Economy Impacts Assessment provides a nonpartisan, evidence-based resource to help Idaho business leaders, policy makers and residents better understand, predict and manage climate-economy impacts that are specific to our state. The assessment provides key insights that will help inform strategic decision-making on the personal, business and community level and lead to the development of a more resilient Idaho.